The QB Position In Fantasy Football Is Overrated
In real life if a team has an elite quarterback, they have a fighting chance to win the super bowl.
Going by that logic, getting an elite quarterback for your fantasy team should be a top priority...right? Not exactly, here's why:
There are 32 NFL teams and only 10-12 teams have an elite level QB, thus only 1 / 3 NFL teams have an elite QB.
The problem is, most fantasy leagues only have 10-12 teams, meaning everyone in your league is going to have a great quarterback.
This is why QBs have low positional value, (Positional Value- Refers to the value of each position.)
Having on of these "top tier" QBs doesn't provide much of an advantage in relation to other positions you could be drafting.
Total Point Comparison
If you draft Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 2.08) you’re taking him over a player like Justin Jefferson (ADP:3.02). If you draft Ryan Tannehill (ADP: 9.08) you’re taking him over a player like Devante Parker (ADP: 10.06).
Last season Patrick Mahomes had 380 points and finished as the QB4. Ryan Tannehill had 351 points and finished as the QB7.
Justin Jefferson finished as the WR6 with 230 points. Devante Parker finished as the WR42 with 135 points. That’s a 95 point difference.
*The gap for running backs is even bigger. Aaron Jones (235 points) is being taken in the same range as Mahomes. Leonard Forunette (114 points) is being drafted in the same range as Tannehill. That’s a 121 point difference.
Consistency Stat Comparison
Total stats don't always tell the full story though, so let's look at some consistency stats.
Patrick Mahomes finished as a Top 10 QB 10 times in 15 games and was a Top 5 QB 5 of those weeks.
Ryan Tannehill finished as a Top 10 QB 8 times in 16 games and was a Top 5 QB 5 of those weeks.
Justin Jefferson finished as a Top 20 WR 8 times in 16 games and was a Top 5 Wr 3 times. Devante Parker finished as a Top 20 WR 4 times and didn’t finish higher than the WR 14 all season.
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It’s worth noting that the Titans added Julio Jones this offseason and their secondary got worse which are both indicators that Tannehill will have better end of season stats.
It’s also worth noting Miami added Will Fuller in free agency, drafted Jaylen Waddle 6th overall and named Tua the starting QB which all point to regression for Parker this year.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the gap between these two is even higher than 95 points this season.
All of this to say- you can get a great QB that you can start weekly late, but you cannot get anywhere near the same value at RB/WR late.
If you really want one of the top QBs (Mahomes, Murray, Allen, etc.) you can monitor their play the first few weeks of the season and if for some reason they’re struggling, try to make a trade for them.
If you play your cards right you could end up with one of the top QBs and keep your 2nd/3rd round RB/WR.
Thanks for reading, I wish you all the best of luck in your drafts this season!